Procurement and Process: an interrupted time series analysis of federal AI contracting after the 2024 OMB AI procurement memoranda
An interrupted time series analysis of US federal contracting data examining whether the 2024 Office of Management and Budget (OMB) AI procurement memoranda measurably shifted agency-level AI adoption.
Identifies AI-related contract actions across roughly 7,200 agency-months and tests for level shifts at the M-24-10 (March 2024) and M-24-18 (September 2024) intervention points. Distinguishes between extensive-margin (frequency) and intensive-margin (volume) responses — a distinction with direct implications for how administrative AI policy is read as a regulatory instrument. Full chart and methodology →